This game has gotten far more attention than it normally does because of the decision from Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey to sit out this game in preparation for the NFL Draft.
Christian McCaffrey: 6,191 all-purpose yards over the last two seasons, the most by any player in a two-season stretch in FBS history. pic.twitter.com/C1XCIqI6W3
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 19, 2016
Regardless of your take on that choice, this is still an interesting matchup featuring lots of talent on both sides.
Stanford’s season didn’t quite go as expected. After reeling off three wins against Kansas State, USC, and UCLA to begin the season, the Cardinal ran headfirst into a roadblock in the form of the evergreen state. Washington and Washington State blasted Stanford by a combined score of 86-22. An unusual 10-5 loss to Colorado two weeks later could have really caused things to go off the rails, but five consecutive wins kept things on track.
The Tar Heels dropped a tough opener to Georgia and got blown out at home by Virginia Tech — in a hurricane Carolina fans would like me to point out — but the loss to the Hokies was sandwiched by victories at Florida State and Miami. Late season losses to Duke and N.C. State no doubt left a sour taste in Larry Fedora’s mouth, one that could be remedied by a bowl win over a ranked opponent.
Even without McCaffrey, Stanford has a very solid running back in Bryce Love. The sophomore out of Wake Forest, N.C. ran for 664 yards and three touchdowns this season and while he isn’t the versatile threat that McCaffrey is, he’s a very capable back.
The season turned a bit after a quarterback change as well when senior Ryan Burns was replaced by junior Keller Chryst who keyed the five-game winning streak down the stretch. Chryst has been able to limit his mistakes with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions versus five touchdowns and seven picks for Burns.
The Cardinal defense has been solid for the most part, but the way wide-open passing attacks gashed Stanford against Washington and Washington State should give pause given Carolina’s strength.
That would be quarterback Mitch Trubisky who rapidly ascended from a slight question mark in preseason to a potential NFL first-rounder. The junior completed 68.9 percent of his passes for 3,468 yards with 28 touchdowns and just four interceptions in his first season as the Tar Heel starter.
RIGHT NOW! @CoachFedora talks @Switz03 and @CoachGeneChizik after today's practice: pic.twitter.com/2QWQgxbzEn
— Carolina Football (@UNCFootball) December 27, 2016
His targets are numerous but the top receiver is Ryan Switzer who caught 91 passes for 1,027 yards with five scores. The next closest receiver is Bug Howard who caught 48 balls for 768 yards and a team-high seven touchdowns.
Starting running back Elijah Hood will sit this one out after battling injuries for much of the season. His 858 yards and eight touchdowns led the Tar Heels and the rushing burden now shifts to T.J. Logan who is a speedy player, but lacks the size to be a reliable every down back.
Carolina figures to go pass-heavy given the running back situation which should make for an exciting game. Stanford will likely still try to run the ball as throwing against UNC has been difficult this season. The Tar Heels are 14th nationally in passing yards allowed.
Stanford is a good team and top to bottom are probably more talented, but without their x-factor in Christian McCaffrey they become a far more beatable team. I think this will be a sneaky good game, but since my predictions tend to go poorly in bowl games it’s just a wild guess at the result.
North Carolina 35 Stanford 24